Ache is one thing sports activities followers know all too properly. Pouring every little thing you’ve into rooting for a single crew may be exhausting, and when issues go sideways, the loss is hard to recover from. But as a lot because it hurts, we come again for extra as a result of … properly, sports activities.
March Insanity? That is a distinct type of torture, as a result of we enter with an inflated sense of hope. What might presumably go mistaken in a concentrated span of 67 video games? (Because the followers of the No. 1 seeds can all attest to, loads, truly.)
Sixty-six groups have now exited the match, leaving 66 sports activities communities in some stage of ache. In an try and measure that, we have introduced again our annual rating of how heartbreaking every crew’s departure from the match was. We took into consideration all the following:
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What had been the expectations from the crew getting into the match?
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Have been there missed alternatives or was the loss a results of dangerous luck in a detailed sport? (ESPN’s peak win likelihood metric helps right here.)
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Was historical past made within the match (together with upsets, first appearances, magical runs)?
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Have been there extenuating circumstances, reminiscent of dangerous calls or accidents?
The rating is not excellent; many will disagree whether or not one issue outweighs one other. However distress loves firm, so learn on should you rooted for any of those groups at one level, and share in your collective ache.
66. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders (No. 16 seed, South)
How they misplaced: No. 1 seed Alabama defeated the Islanders 96-75 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 1.9%. The 25-point favourite Crimson Tide scored the primary 9 factors from tip and by no means regarded again.
How a lot it damage: It should not. Expectations will include time for this crew, and after having gained 47 video games over the previous two seasons, that point could be prior to later. However advancing previous the play-in stage solely to fall to the No. 1 general seed continues to be an accomplishment.
65. Howard Bison (No. 16 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 1 Kansas defeated the Bison 96-68 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 1.3%. With 5 minutes left within the first half, this was a tie sport, however our win likelihood metrics weren’t shopping for the Bisons. Regardless of the shut rating, Howard’s odds by no means improved.
How a lot it damage: For the primary time since 1992, Howard punched its dance card. That far outweighs any disappointment in its effort towards the 1-seeded Jayhawks.
64. UNC Asheville Bulldogs (No. 15 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 2 UCLA blew out the Bulldogs 86-53 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 3.2%. The 17-point underdogs had been by no means favored.
How a lot it damage: The Bulldogs did not issue into the insanity of March, regardless of having a sharpshooter in Drew Pember. Their first match look in seven years continues to be a hit.
63. Northern Kentucky Norse (No. 16 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 1 seed Houston defeated the Norse 63-52 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 22.1%. Northern Kentucky drew even with beneath quarter-hour to play, earlier than the Cougars regained management.
How a lot it damage: Three appearances in six tournaments is a badge of honor for the Norse. Competing with a match favourite for almost all of the sport is an appropriate method to bow out. In profitable 12 of 16 video games getting into the NCAA match, the Norse gave their followers an thrilling remaining two months.
62. Montana State Bobcats (No. 14 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 3 seed Kansas State defeated the Bobcats 77-65 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 22.5%. Montana State misplaced each halves by six factors and was by no means actually a menace to tug off the upset.
How a lot it damage: From 1952 to 2021, the Bobcats had zero 25-win seasons and nil NCAA match appearances. They’ve damaged each these streaks in every of the previous two campaigns. They usually had been aggressive within the first spherical one towards a crew poised to do critical injury. That is actually all you’ll be able to ask for.
61. Colgate Raiders (No. 15 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 2 seed Texas defeated the Raiders 81-61 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 14%. Colgate scored the primary two buckets earlier than Texas imposed its will and took complete management.
How a lot it damage: 4 straight match appearances after consecutive many years with out a single dance invite nonetheless makes this a profitable season for the Raiders.
60. Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (No. 16 seed, South)
How they misplaced: No. 16 seed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi defeated the Redhawks 75-71 within the First 4.
Peak win likelihood: 46.1%. With three minutes to go, Chris Harris made a free throw to tie the sport — and provides Southeast Missouri State hope.
How a lot it damage: This was the Ohio Valley Convention match champions’ second-ever NCAA match berth — even when it was for a First 4 matchup. SEMO bumped into foul bother — 31! — and was outrebounded by TAMU-CC. An admirable effort, however nothing to shed a number of tears about.
59. Texas Southern Tigers (No. 16 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson defeated the Tigers 84-61 within the First 4.
Peak win likelihood: 50.7%, on the tip. FDU would take the lead and preserve it the remainder of the best way.
How a lot it damage: A 3rd consecutive match look for the Tigers, and a 3rd consecutive loss in a sport that was predicted to go both manner. Nobody, together with Texas Southern, predicted the Knights’ 3-point taking pictures. The Tigers certainly had their title referred to as on Choice Sunday, however their nonconference schedule outcomes additionally hinted they would not final lengthy in March.
58. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (No. 13 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 4 seed Tennessee defeated the Ragin Cajuns 58-55 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 14.1%. Even with a short-lived early lead, Louisiana by no means had an opportunity.
How a lot it damage: Qualifying for the match for the primary time since 2014, profitable 10 extra video games than a season in the past and hanging inside a single possession of arguably the perfect defensive crew within the nation for a lot of the primary half — not one factor to hold your head about.
57. Kent State Golden Flashes (No. 13 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 4 Indiana defeated the Golden Flashes 71-60 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 30.6%. After 5 minutes, Kent State had a one-point lead — and a quick probability to tug off the upset.
How a lot it damage: One-and-done within the match isn’t the dream, but it surely was a superb cap to a superb season. The Golden Flashes misplaced simply seven video games, three of which got here by a complete of 23 factors to top-30 KenPom groups. Their 28 wins had been second most in program historical past. Count on them to attempt once more subsequent season to earn their first match win since 2002.
56. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (No. 14 seed, South)
How they misplaced: No. 3 seed Baylor defeated the Gauchos 74-56 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 32.9%. The Gauchos held a halftime lead as a ten.5-point underdog, and the final time they’d be up within the sport was on the 17:19 mark.
How a lot it damage: It is all the time a tease when an enormous underdog leads on the half earlier than the cream rises, however the Gauchos proved they may sustain, a minimum of for a superb whereas, with a Baylor crew many thought had deep run potential. This can be a program that has participated in two of the previous three NCAA tournaments and had a sophomore (Ajay Mitchell) lead it in scoring this season. The Gauchos needs to be again.
55. VCU Rams (No. 12 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 5 Saint Mary’s defeated the Rams 63-51 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 49.8%. An early lead from the 4.5-point underdogs did not stick for lengthy.
How a lot it damage: The Rams gained 9 video games within the lead-up to the dance — their tenth look in 12 tournaments — however they merely could not pull off the upset. For every little thing that makes VCU a profitable program, the Rams have not gained a match sport since 2016.
54. Vermont Catamounts (No. 15 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 2 seed Marquette defeated the Catamounts 78-61 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 18.7%. Vermont bought again inside 5 factors of Marquette with 14:30 to go within the second half however could not capitalize on the momentum.
How a lot it damage: The upside of this crew is proscribed, however the Catamounts have been invited to the dance in 4 of the previous six tournaments. They’re winless in these 4 tournaments (as a 13-seed or worse), however so long as they proceed to see their title referred to as on Choice Sunday, these first-round losses aren’t so painful.
53. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (No. 12 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 5 seed Duke defeated the Golden Eagles 74-51 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 22.1%. Till the primary factors had been scored, there was hope for the Golden Eagles.
How a lot it damage: A fourth straight season of accelerating its win complete is a hit for ORU. Two match journeys in three seasons is not too shabby, both. The crew merely ran right into a blue blood that was peaking on the proper time. Do not be unhappy it is over; be glad it occurred.
52. Furman Paladins (No. 13 seed, South)
How they misplaced: No. 5 seed San Diego State defeated the Paladins within the second spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 39.6%. At no level had been the Paladins projected to win this sport, however they did soar out to a quick lead at 16-12.
How a lot it damage: After a first-round upset win delivered a spotlight reel that can dwell perpetually, nothing might have occurred within the spherical of 32 to bitter Paladin followers on the 2023 match. The one ache on this defeat was that it ended a season with a program-best 28 wins and Furman’s first NCAA match win in almost 50 years.
51. Nevada Wolf Pack (No. 11 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 11 seed Arizona State defeated the Wolf Pack 98-73 within the First 4.
Peak win likelihood: 57.1%. Nevada hit a trey on the primary possession — however would not rating once more for 3 minutes. That was sufficient for Arizona State to leap forward and by no means look again.
How a lot it damage: Early fouls for Kenan Blackshear coupled with Arizona State’s excellent protection by no means gave the Wolf Pack an opportunity. This was Nevada’s first match look since 2019, and it was an accomplishment for the Mountain West Convention, as a complete, to have 4 groups referred to as on Choice Sunday. However there have been, and are, higher league applications (see: San Diego State’s Closing 4 run) with higher résumés.
50. Grand Canyon Lopes (No. 14 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 3 Gonzaga defeated the Lopes 82-70 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 41.6%. No small accomplishment for a 15.5-point underdog, which led by seven with six minutes remaining within the first half.
How a lot it damage: Two match appearances and profitable over 70% of their video games in three seasons beneath Bryce Drew is a hit. Reality. No ache right here. The Lopes dedicated simply seven turnovers towards a powerhouse squad.
49. Charleston Cougars (No. 12 seed, South)
How they misplaced: No. 5 seed San Diego State defeated the Cougars 63-57 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 61.6%. With six minutes to go within the first half, the Cougars led 24-17. Lower than 60 seconds later, the possibilities of a 12-5 upset plummeted.
How a lot it damage: Was this the Cougars’ greatest probability to make some noise? A program-record 31-win season (plus-14 from a yr in the past) is a formidable feat, and there is not any disgrace in bowing out to an Aztecs crew everybody underestimated. Charleston battled with a powerful crew and was aggressive all through; this was a rising expertise, not a tragic outcome.
48. Northwestern Wildcats (No. 7 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 2 UCLA defeated the Wildcats 68-63 within the second spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 37%. This sport was tied halfway by means of the second half, giving the 7.5-point underdogs a (slim) probability at one other upset.
How a lot it damage: Whereas the Wildcats stumbled into match play (1-4 of their final 5 video games), they gained a match sport for the second time in program historical past, and made a title contender sweat within the second spherical. A poorly timed scoring drought ended the second-best season in class historical past, however Chris Collins will see one other yr (a minimum of) in Evanston.
47. Kennesaw State Owls (No. 14 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 3 seed Xavier defeated the Owls 72-67 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 93.6%. One thing occurred within the locker room at halftime, as a result of the Owls got here out swinging and able to bust some brackets — till they did not.
How a lot it damage: This can be a crew that gained a single sport 4 seasons in the past. Throughout this marketing campaign, the Owls completed above .500 for the primary time and entered the match having gained 16 of 18 contests. The 11.5-point underdogs had been comfortably and inexplicably forward earlier than a sudden 15-0 spurt from Xavier. They fought ’til the tip, bouncing again for the lead with beneath two minutes left, however could not overcome that Jack Nunge block. This was nonetheless a terrific displaying for his or her first Division I match look.
46. Princeton Tigers (No. 15 seed, South)
How they misplaced: No. 6 seed Creighton defeated the Tigers 86-75 within the Candy 16.
Peak win likelihood: 31.2%. Late within the first half, the Tigers had been in a position to claw their method to a three-point lead (38-35) earlier than the Bluejays made their transfer.
How a lot it damage: Profitable outright as a 16-point underdog within the first spherical towards 2-seed Arizona made this season as profitable as any within the historical past of this program. Brackets had been busted — and Saint Peter’s was remembered — as Princeton beat Missouri to advance to the Candy 16. Might this Mitch Henderson-coached program surpass its greatest end (Candy 16, 1967) with an Elite Eight run? Keep in mind, although: All however one crew within the match sees its season finish with a loss. Bowing out the best way the Tigers did — as a 15-seed, whereas dropping 75 factors on a powerful Creighton protection — is a fantastic method to finish your marketing campaign.
45. Pittsburgh Panthers (No. 11 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 3 seed Xavier defeated the Panthers 84-73 within the second spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 38.9%. The sport was a coin flip for the primary 10 minutes.
How a lot it damage: The Panthers had been enjoying with home cash towards Xavier, so the loss did not actually register on this ache scale. This yr additionally marked Pitt’s first match look since 2016 and its first match win since 2014. Not dangerous for a crew that began the season dropping three of 4 video games and being blown out twice.
44. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (No. 16 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 9 seed FAU defeated the Knights 78-70 within the second spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 49.7%. This one went backwards and forwards towards the tip, however being up 5 factors with eight minutes left was as shut because the Knights would get to extending their Cinderella run.
How a lot it damage: FDU set the upset tone for the whole match, modified the monetary way forward for its coach and carved a legacy in 40 minutes that can by no means be forgotten. The Knights had been by no means meant to be on this large stage — they did not win both the common season or their convention championship — however pulled off the best upset within the historical past of the game, changing into simply the second 16-seed to upset a 1-seed. There is no end result within the second spherical that was going to overshadow the slaying of Goliath.
43. Windfall Friars (No. 11 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 6 seed Kentucky defeated the Friars 61-53 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 47.1%. An early lead was extinguished by way of an 11-3 Wildcats run over a 4½-minute span.
How a lot it damage: We noticed what this crew might do within the few highlights of the season — wins over Marquette, UConn and Creighton — however the Friars had been a 4.5-point underdog to Kentucky for a cause. Coming into the match with three straight losses saved expectations low too.
42. Illinois Combating Illini (No. 9 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 8 seed Arkansas defeated the Illini 73-63 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 49.8%. Illinois scored the primary bucket, therefore the near-50% likelihood. However the Illini had been by no means favored to win, and so they fell behind in brief order.
How a lot it damage: Three straight seasons as a preseason top-25 crew and a complete of two match sport wins to indicate in that span. Not excellent. This crew misplaced a whole lot of expertise from the 2022 squad, and whereas defeating UCLA and Texas in November allowed this fan base to dream, the season as a complete was painful, with loads of inconsistencies. This loss would not even depend among the many worst.
41. Maryland Terrapins (No. 8 seed, South)
How they misplaced: No. 1 seed Alabama defeated the Terrapins 73-51 within the second spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 37.1%. Maryland caught Alabama abruptly, maybe, scoring 9 of the primary 11 factors of the sport.
How a lot it damage: After competing exhausting within the first half, a 14-0 run by the Tide early after intermission took the thrill out of this one, lessening the ache. For the third time in 4 tournaments, Maryland gained precisely one sport, making this season one thing of the expectation. Contemplate this, although: Kevin Willard has constructed some expectations round this program in his first yr. Shedding to the highest general seed as an 8.5-point underdog is not as stunning.
40. Utah State Aggies (No. 10 seed, South)
How they misplaced: No. 7 seed Missouri defeated the Aggies 76-65 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 63.6%. This was a battle for the Aggies, who might by no means get greater than two factors forward of the Tigers.
How a lot it damage: For the third time in 4 tournaments, the Aggies did not win a sport. Whereas the shortage of success is not excellent, constantly getting invitations to the dance stays spectacular for a mid-major crew. With 20-plus wins in 4 of the previous 5 seasons, this program is trending in the appropriate path.
39. Iona Gaels (No. 13 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 4 UConn defeated the Gaels 87-63 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 44.4%. A giant step up from 16.7% with which they opened the sport, because of a halftime lead towards the Huskies.
How a lot it damage: For the sixth time in seven tournaments the Gaels went dancing and for the sixth time in seven tournaments, they did not have to fret about doing their laundry. Iona has made a behavior of qualifying for the match, and that is nice, however whenever you enter the match with 14 straight wins, the hope is to not fully collapse within the second half. This can be a loss that damage within the second, however when Iona followers look again on it, they are going to keep in mind a terrific season beneath Rick Pitino, not a poor ending.
38. Auburn Tigers (No. 9 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 1 seed Houston defeated the Tigers 81-64 within the second spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 71.1%. The Tigers completed the primary half with a 10-point lead however could not maintain it within the second.
How a lot it damage: The Tigers are a bracket staple — a minimum of one win in 4 of the previous 5 tournaments. This one hurts greater than your typical 17-point loss to a 1-seed, however not as a lot when you think about Auburn entered the match having misplaced 9 of 13 video games.
37. Iowa State Cyclones (No. 6 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 11 Pittsburgh defeated the Cyclones 59-41 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 68%. The primary possession cease netted the Cyclones their highest win likelihood. However the Panthers scored 13 of the primary 14 factors and by no means regarded again.
How a lot it damage: After making a run as an 11-seed a season in the past, it was an 11-seed that ended the Cyclones’ season. This crew flirted with the highest 10 within the AP ballot in February, so the tip outcome wasn’t nice. Then once more, given it was 5-9 in its final 14 video games main into the match, it isn’t as if expectations had been particularly excessive.
36. Boise State Broncos (No. 10 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 7 Northwestern defeated the Broncos 75-67 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 52.1%. Fifteen seconds in, the coin-flip sport barely favored Boise State. Northwestern led the entire manner by means of.
How a lot it damage: This crew has gained over 60% of its video games in 10 of 11 seasons and went dancing in consecutive seasons for the primary time because the early ’90s. They’re clearly constructing as much as their first match win in program historical past.
35. Mississippi State Bulldogs (No. 11 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 11 seed Pittsburgh defeated the Bulldogs 60-59 within the First 4.
Peak win likelihood: 71.4%. Whereas the Bulldogs’ greatest probability got here 5 minutes in, they remained contenders for almost all of the sport.
How a lot it damage: Mississippi State not solely missed a wide-open 3 to win it within the remaining seconds but in addition missed the following tip-in try on the buzzer, which was heartbreaking. This sport featured 21 lead adjustments — probably the most in NCAA match historical past — and the Bulldogs had been in it all the way down to the wire. The one-point loss will sting, however maybe extra so might be the truth that they needed to play for an opportunity to make the bracket.
34. Iowa Hawkeyes (No. 8 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 9 seed Auburn defeated the Hawkeyes 83-75 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 51.7%. An early 6-4 lead provided a quick glimpse at a aggressive sport.
How a lot it damage: Iowa teased its ceiling late within the season, however in the end misplaced 5 of seven video games to spherical out the season. In and of itself, this match loss wasn’t that dangerous, however the Hawkeyes have now suffered a loss to a decrease seed in three straight tournaments.
33. NC State Wolfpack (No. 11 seed, South)
How they misplaced: No. 6 seed Creighton defeated the Wolfpack 72-63 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 66.8%. With just below 17 minutes left within the sport, the Wolfpack held a seven-point benefit over the Bluejays.
How a lot it damage: The ache right here would not come from failing to satisfy expectations — it is from not making the most of a sport by which the Wolfpack outrebounded their opponent and compelled them to overlook 17 of 20 3-point makes an attempt. A win would have been nice for projected second-round NBA draft decide Terquavion Smith, however this season (23 wins) was a big step ahead for this system (24 wins complete within the earlier two seasons).
32. Texas A&M Aggies (No. 7 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 10 seed Penn State defeated the Aggies 76-59 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 73.4%. The Aggies in the end could not compete towards Penn State’s scorching taking pictures.
How a lot it damage: Any time you are a favourite within the first spherical, you are penciling in a minimum of two video games. The Aggies simply weren’t anticipating to run into the buzzsaw that was Andrew Funk & Co. (13-of-22 from 3). Texas A&M matched a program greatest for wins in a two-season stretch (52), nevertheless. This March outcome should not be discouraging.
31. Arkansas Razorbacks (No. 8 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 4 UConn defeated the Razorbacks 88-65 within the Candy 16.
Peak win likelihood: 34.8%. That was on the primary possession, when the Razorbacks pressured a turnover.
How a lot it damage: This might have been ranked greater had the common season not been performed. Arkansas got here up in need of preseason expectations, however after an up-and-down season, a visit to the Candy 16 needs to be seen as a web win. The upset of top-seeded Kansas within the second spherical allowed the Razorbacks’ fan base to be seduced by this crew’s uncooked expertise, and in hindsight, dropping to a dominant Closing 4 UConn crew is not probably the most painful method to shut out the season.
30. Missouri Tigers (No. 7 seed)
How they misplaced: No. 15 seed Princeton defeated the Tigers 78-63 within the second spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 75.3%. Missouri was a 6.5-point favourite whose win likelihood peaked lower than 2½ minutes into the sport earlier than steadily dropping by means of the ultimate 30.
How a lot it damage: Can Mizzou followers actually be disenchanted on this season as a complete? The Tigers greater than doubled their season win complete from a yr in the past, and likewise bought their first match win in a decade. New coach Dennis Gates did nothing however impress in his first season … even when Missouri was the inferior Tigers crew when it counted most.
29. West Virginia Mountaineers (No. 9 seed, South)
How they misplaced: No. 8 seed Maryland defeated the Mountaineers 67-65 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 83.9%. Practically midway by means of the primary half, the Mountaineers had a 13-point lead. They squandered it, recovered and went again up by 9, then squandered that lead as properly.
How a lot it damage: The loser of any 8-9-seed sport is all the time going to really feel prefer it might have superior, however this one’s sting will final some time as a result of the Mountaineers had been the higher crew for the primary 28 minutes.
28. USC Trojans (No. 10 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 7 seed Michigan State defeated the Trojans 72-62 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 52.8%. A triple late within the first half tipped the scales within the Trojans’ favor for a single possession.
How a lot it damage: This marks back-to-back seasons by which USC has misplaced the 7-10 first-round sport, solely this time it was with a crew that was by no means ranked and had restricted expectations. One other 20-plus-win season (USC’s fourth consecutive and seventh in eight seasons) is extra encouraging than the early exit is discouraging. Nonetheless, this can be a program thirsty for some match success after getting a style of it in 2021 (its first tourney wins in twenty years).
27. Penn State Nittany Lions (No. 10 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 2 seed Texas defeated the Nittany Lions 71-66 within the second spherical
Peak win likelihood: 63.5%. With just below 5 minutes remaining, PSU briefly held the lead.
How a lot it damage: In case you watched Penn State this season, you discovered in regards to the phrase “variance,” and had been correctly ready for any match outcome. Getting invited to the dance was a hit, as was profitable within the first spherical as a 3-point underdog. However the poorly saved secret of a training change heading into subsequent season might not have helped with this crew’s focus. Plus, the curler coaster of a daily season saved expectations very a lot in examine.
26. Xavier Musketeers (No. 3 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 2 seed Texas defeated the Musketeers 83-71 within the Candy 16.
Peak win likelihood: 29.4%. That was on the tip.
How a lot it damage: Zach Freemantle’s harm tempered expectations for a Xavier crew that had the statistical profile of a future NCAA champion. This program was additionally left off the bracket in three consecutive tournaments, so it is exhausting to label two victories with out a starter as a disappointment. Xavier has seen its win share enhance in 4 straight seasons, and regardless of enjoying its worst sport within the Candy 16, the arrow for Sean Miller’s crew is pointing up.
25. Saint Mary’s Gaels (No. 5 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 4 UConn defeated the Gaels 70-55 within the second spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 59.5%. A scorching begin within the first eight minutes had the Gaels a quick favourite earlier than UConn’s deep ball accuracy (10-of-22 from 3) doomed any possibilities of a win.
How a lot it damage: The WCC common season co-champions struggled towards the elite groups on their schedule this season. In addition they have not superior previous the second spherical since 2010, regardless of seven AP Prime 25 appearances in that stretch. This one is not as painful because it might have been.
24. Arizona State Solar Devils (No. 11 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 6 TCU defeated the Solar Devils 72-70 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 88.8%. The Solar Devils had been wanting good, up eight with beneath 5 minutes to go. Then a 17-5 closing run did them in.
How a lot it damage: After a 15-3 begin to the season, Arizona State struggled in Pac-12 play, barely hanging on to earn a play-in invite (beating Arizona on a buzzer beater helped there). A definitive victory over Nevada within the First 4 raised hopes, however blowing this first-round sport extends ASU’s match win drought to a decade.
23. Baylor Bears (No. 3 seed, South)
How they misplaced: No. 6 seed Creighton defeated the Bears 85-76 within the second spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 59.2%. A short lead over the Bluejays (10-7) by no means lasted.
How a lot it damage: Baylor was a 2-point underdog on this sport regardless of the seeding distinction, however this loss nonetheless damage. The 2021 title run was a factor of magnificence, however following that up with back-to-back seasons by which the Bears opened as an AP top-10 crew then failed to succeed in the Candy 16 is hard to swallow.
22. Kentucky Wildcats (No. 6 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 3 seed Kansas State gained the battle of the Wildcats 75-69 within the second spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 83.8%. The sport principally favored Kentucky, whose largest lead was eight.
How a lot it damage: This season as a complete was a take a look at in persistence for a fan base that expects success within the type of nationwide championships. The No. 4 crew within the preseason fell out of the AP ballot for 2 straight months and managed just one match win. Higher than final yr’s defeat to a 15-seed, however the Wildcats did blow a possibility right here.
21. Duke Blue Devils (No. 5 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 4 seed Tennessee defeated the Blue Devils 65-52 within the second spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 50.8%. A Kyle Filipowski layup prolonged Duke’s result in six, earlier than a 3-pointer from Santiago Vescovi put the Vols again in management.
How a lot it damage: This one’s difficult. On the one hand, we’re speaking about Duke. A preseason top-10 crew for the fifteenth straight season that was truly enjoying like one within the postseason. Tennessee, in the meantime, was with out its place to begin guard, and top-seeded Purdue was eradicated within the first spherical … so Duke followers had each proper to start out reserving lodges for the Closing 4. Then again, this was Duke’s worst match seed since 2007. Might a squad of prime freshmen actually go up towards expertise? And there was no Coach Okay on the sidelines for the primary time in over 4 many years. Jon Scheyer is to be recommended for his first season on the helm, however we all the time count on higher from Duke.
20. Indiana Hoosiers (No. 4 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 5 Miami defeated the Hoosiers 85-69 within the second spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 66.1%. The Hoosiers had a three-point lead early within the second half.
How a lot it damage: After a formidable 7-0 begin to the season, IU largely struggled with consistency. You might argue they’d the 2 greatest gamers on the courtroom towards Miami in a sport by which they had been favored. However there wasn’t a lot on this résumé that pointed to an prolonged run.
19. Drake Bulldogs (No. 12 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 5 Miami defeated the Bulldogs 63-56 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 90.5%. Drake held an eight-point lead with 5 minutes to go.
How a lot it damage: Two match appearances in three seasons after attending to the dance simply as soon as in 47 years is a formidable accomplishment by itself — not to mention pushing a Closing 4 crew to the brink. Does scoring a single level over the ultimate 339 seconds of this sport damage? After all. It is easy to get sucked into the “what would have occurred if we closed” vortex, however this program is transferring in the appropriate path.
18. Marquette Golden Eagles (No. 2 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 7 seed Michigan State defeated the Golden Eagles 69-60 within the second spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 68.5%. Regardless of taking pictures struggles, Marquette had a three-point lead with over 16 minutes remaining earlier than MSU ran away with it.
How a lot it damage: The Large East champs entered this match with their highest seed in program historical past, and the expectations to match. Their first-round win over Vermont was their first in a decade, which is reassuring — however for arguably the perfect crew this college has produced, not the purpose. We’ll count on Shaka Sensible again subsequent yr.
17. Memphis Tigers (No. 8 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 9 seed FAU defeated the Tigers 66-65 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 89%. With 5 seconds to go, Memphis was up one.
How a lot it damage: The Tigers skilled a late unraveling after main for a lot of the second half. To come back so shut towards a Closing 4 crew stings much more contemplating Memphis might have taken on — maybe efficiently — the upper seeds in its path.
16. Tennessee Volunteers (No. 4 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 9 seed FAU defeated the Vols 62-55 within the Candy 16.
Peak win likelihood: 92%. For simply over half-hour, the Vols remained the favorites.
How a lot it damage: Zakai Zeigler’s late-season harm adjusted expectations for this crew, however followers had been nonetheless anticipating extra from the No. 1 protection within the nation (and a 4.5-point favourite on this sport). The Vols have been seeded No. 5 or higher in 5 straight tournaments with out an Elite Eight look to indicate for it.
15. Gonzaga Bulldogs (No. 3 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 4 UConn blew out the Bulldogs 82-54 within the Elite Eight.
Peak win likelihood: 47.1%. But it surely was by no means actually a contest, even when the Zags tied issues up 5 minutes earlier than halftime.
How a lot it damage: When probably the most profitable applications over the previous decade will get run off the courtroom, it cuts deep. This wasn’t the perfect Zags crew in current reminiscence, however their slim victory within the Candy 16 over UCLA had them believing they may return to the Closing 4 and at last win a nationwide title. A 13-2 run to open the second half dashed these hopes fairly fast, and the drought continues.
14. Texas Longhorns (No. 2 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 5 seed Miami defeated the Longhorns 88-81 within the Elite Eight.
Peak win likelihood: 95.8%. They had been up 13 factors with 13 minutes left.
How a lot it damage: From an enormous second-half result in the best way the match performed out (Texas was the betting favourite to chop down the nets getting into the Elite Eight), Longhorns Nation had every little thing proper the place it wished it. At halftime of the Miami sport, followers had been reserving tickets to Houston to see their program chase its first title. It wasn’t to be. A powerful 29 wins and a 2-seed would not totally make up for the second-half collapse, but it surely does put a constructive spin on a season overshadowed by the firing of coach Chris Beard.
13. Miami Hurricanes (No. 5 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 4 seed UConn defeated the Hurricanes 72-59 within the Closing 4.
Peak win likelihood: 29.4%. In a wire-to-wire UConn effort, the Hurricanes considered a run on the 8:23 mark within the first half. It did not come to fruition.
How a lot it damage: The Hurricanes’ first and solely Closing 4 sport did not go the best way they wished. However UConn proved its sheer dominance, and Miami, in all honesty, by no means actually had an opportunity. South Florida can take coronary heart that this was among the finest groups within the ACC, it pulled off some unlikely upsets and it made historical past for the varsity. Nonetheless, coming inside a sport of the nationwide title sport hurts loads.
12. TCU Horned Frogs (No. 6 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 3 seed Gonzaga defeated the Horned Frogs 84-81 within the second spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 69.7%. With 7:30 left within the first half, the Horned Frogs had been up 10. The lead held into the second half, and the sport remained shut however shortly trended down, particularly after Drew Timme’s sudden trey.
How a lot it damage: Damion Baugh’s 3-pointer on the buzzer got here a minute too late for the Horned Frogs, which all sport lengthy had regarded like among the finest groups within the nation. Foul bother, and a resurgence from the Zags, saved them in examine. TCU must wait one other yr to win two video games in the identical match for the primary time in program historical past.
11. Houston Cougars (No. 1 seed, Midwest)
How they misplaced: No. 5 seed Miami defeated the Cougars 89-75 within the Candy 16.
Peak win likelihood: 90%. That was two minutes into the sport.
How a lot it damage: 4 straight Candy 16s for the Cougars is spectacular, however this crew had greater objectives with simply the second 1-seed in program historical past (the primary was in 1983). Whereas the outcome hurts, it wasn’t fluky: This form of danger exists in a sport by which 48.4% of your pictures come from downtown. It is a make-or-miss sport, and on an evening by which you shoot 29%, you are going to lose.
10. Michigan State Spartans (No. 7 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 3 seed Kansas State defeated the Spartans 98-93 (OT) within the Candy 16.
Peak win likelihood: 67.8%. The Spartans’ highest likelihood got here 90 seconds into time beyond regulation with a three-point benefit.
How a lot it damage: MSU was 7-8 over its remaining 15 video games earlier than the match, and entered with decrease expectations than the uniform warrants. Tom Izzo himself acknowledged this wasn’t his greatest crew. So the truth that the Spartans gained a pair of video games, together with upsetting a Marquette crew a number of consultants had profitable this area, salvaged the season. An time beyond regulation loss will all the time damage, although.
9. Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 1 seed, South)
How they misplaced: No. 5 seed San Diego State defeated the Tide 71-64 within the Candy 16.
Peak win likelihood: 89.8%. Bama was forward with beneath 12 minutes to play and was masking the 6.5-point closing line. Inside three minutes, the momentum swung in San Diego State’s favor, and it stayed there.
How a lot it damage: The highest general seed was the most-picked champion throughout brackets. Any yr that the Tide do not win a nationwide championship on the gridiron has the followers on tilt, so after the hoops crew teased them with elite expectations, bowing out earlier than the ultimate week of the match cuts deep.
8. Kansas State Wildcats (No. 3 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 9 seed FAU defeated the Wildcats 79-76 within the Elite Eight.
Peak win likelihood: 84%. For a 10-minute stretch within the second half, KSU nonetheless had an opportunity.
How a lot it damage: All of us wished the Markquis Nowell present to proceed. What he did in 4 video games (94 factors and 54 assists) was monitoring to be a Kemba Walker-type match run, and it’ll as an alternative be a footnote. The Wildcats left six factors on the free throw line in a three-point loss. However let’s not neglect that this crew gained extra video games this season (26) than its earlier two mixed (23), was picked final within the Large 12 preseason ballot and was an AP top-five squad for the primary time in additional than a decade. After the suitable time of mourning, count on future success.
7. Virginia Cavaliers (No. 4 seed, South)
How they misplaced: No. 13 seed Furman defeated the Cavaliers 68-67 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 96.1% — which felt low. Then Virginia blew a 12-point lead midway into the second half. It took the lead again and was at 88% with seven seconds left — till the sudden turnover.
How a lot it damage: Kihei Clark has 161 implausible video games on his collegiate résumé, however his legacy might be one careless move that price Virginia this sport. The Cavs haven’t gained a match sport since profitable all of it in 2019, which is disappointing given they had been a top-five crew within the AP ballot in three of these 4 seasons. Banners grasp perpetually, however the persistence of this fan base is getting skinny.
6. Florida Atlantic Owls (No. 9 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 5 seed San Diego State defeated the Owls 71-70 within the Closing 4.
Peak win likelihood: 94.8%. The Owls had a 14-point lead getting into the second half, however the Aztecs battled again and finally gained on an unimaginable buzzer-beater.
How a lot it damage: The buzzer-beater within the semifinal sport wasn’t alleged to occur. That is the one cause we have put them up this excessive, as a result of in any other case the Owls don’t have any cause to be heartbroken. To go from zero match wins in program historical past to the Closing 4 within the house of three weeks is the run desires are manufactured from. Nothing can prime this.
5. Kansas Jayhawks (No. 1 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 8 seed Arkansas defeated the Jayhawks 72-71 within the second spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 91%. As a 1-seed, there weren’t any expectations in any other case — till the ultimate minute, when the Jayhawks could not shut out the shut sport.
How a lot it damage: It had been 41 days since anybody not named Texas had crushed Kansas. Arkansas, a sub-.500 crew in convention play that misplaced had six of 9 video games earlier than the NCAA match, cracked the code. It did not assist that Jayhawks coach Invoice Self was absent, recovering from coronary heart surgical procedure. Their 2022 banner will grasp perpetually, however we’ve not seen a repeat champion since 2006. Historical past urged KU’s luck was going to expire eventually, however for a blue blood, this one is hard.
4. Creighton Bluejays (No. 6 seed, South)
How they misplaced: No. 5 seed SDSU defeated the Bluejays 57-56 within the closing seconds of the Elite Eight.
Peak win likelihood: 84.1%. With 13 minutes to go in regulation, the Bluejays had been cruising. Simply over seven minutes later, it was a distinct story.
How a lot it damage: We went backwards and forwards on this one. This can be a crew that entered the season pegged as a real menace, fell in need of these expectations by means of Christmas and ran scorching throughout the match. The early-season stoop was injury-related, and there was by no means any doubt of the expertise on this roster, so the concept of dropping to a 5-seed — with a 9-seed ready within the Closing 4 — is painful. A decisive ticky-tack foul on the ultimate possession makes it even worse. The Bluejays may need been only a 6-seed, however this loss checks loads of ache bins: expectations, promise and heartbreak. This is not a sport their followers will quickly neglect.
3. UCLA Bruins (No. 2 seed, West)
How they misplaced: No. 3 Gonzaga defeated the Bruins 79-76 within the Candy 16.
Peak win likelihood: 93.3%. Extra fascinating is seeing the Bruins’ likelihood swing from 4.4% to 69.7% to 12.6% throughout the remaining 1:15.
How a lot it damage: A UCLA-Gonzaga matchup is all the time an immediate basic. That mentioned, this UCLA loss hurts. So much. The Bruins did one thing nobody had performed towards Gonzaga within the match: management the primary half. A clutch play with 13 seconds left appeared to carry them again. Nope. Julian Strawther’s fully sudden dagger from manner downtown stung within the second, it stung within the days following and it’ll sting sooner or later because it enters the annals of best March Insanity moments. And so the West Coast match title drought continues.
2. Arizona Wildcats (No. 2 seed, South)
How they misplaced: No. 15 seed Princeton (16-point underdog) defeated the Wildcats 59-55 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 96.3%. For about 38 minutes, Arizona had every little thing to lose. Then within the remaining two minutes, they unexpectedly did.
How a lot it damage: Some of the potent offenses within the nation misplaced a sport to a crew that failed to succeed in 60 factors. Let that sink in a second. This is identical Arizona crew that, in late January, hung 57 factors on the board in a single half. And now, with all of the chips on the road, the Wildcats end with 55 factors towards a fringe top-100 protection that was a modest 13-6 within the Ivy League because the center of December? This can be a storied program that had an opportunity to do large issues (seventh-most picked crew to chop down the nets throughout brackets), however Arizona has but to succeed in a Closing 4 in twenty years and counting.
1. Purdue Boilermakers (No. 1 seed, East)
How they misplaced: No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson (23.5-point underdog) defeated the Boilermakers 63-58 within the first spherical.
Peak win likelihood: 98.7%, on the tip. Nonetheless, Purdue was closely favored whilst FDU led at instances within the first half.
How a lot it damage: Over the previous three seasons, Purdue has racked up 76 wins, spent two months atop the AP ballot, produced a top-five NBA draft decide (Jaden Ivey), rostered the presumptive participant of the yr (Zach Edey) — and gained a complete of two match video games. That is one fewer than Saint Peter’s, a crew that landed Purdue on this listing a season in the past. This can be a program that all the time seems good getting off the bus and in spreadsheets however is not placing concern into anyone as soon as the common season ends.
After his Knights gained the play-in sport towards Texas Southern (as an underdog), then-coach Tobin Anderson foretold arguably the best upset within the historical past of the sport: “The extra I see Purdue, the extra I feel we will beat them.” That is proper. That is the coach of an underdog within the play-in sport for a 16-seed speaking about one of many elite groups from this common season that gained an influence convention match.
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